Be careful when drafting closers. Keep in mind that the ultimate goal for these guys is to compile saves. You don't need to win the category by 30, but it would be great if you can win it by just one. So don't pay too much for saves in terms of draft picks or auction dollars, because the relievers who you think are sure things might not be. For example, in 2007, the trio of Jose Valverde, Francisco Cordero and Joe Borowski saved 22 more games than the combination of Jonathan Papelbon, J.J. Putz and Joe Nathan.
Sure the latter threesome had better ERA and WHIP numbers than their cheaper counterparts, but their limited innings won’t help your composite category ranks as much as the additional saves will. Keep that in mind when formulating your relief pitcher draft strategy. So either take one stud and one lower tier guy, or shoot to draft two relievers from the second and third tiers.
Like the catcher position, relief pitchers should not be taken in the first three or four. Nevertheless, fellow owners in your league will start picking elite closers in early rounds, and that could start a run for the elite guys.
Anyway, here are the ten best in the game, in projected order of 2008 fantasy value.
1. J.J. Putz, Seattle Mariners (2007 Stats: 6-1, 40 Saves, 1.38 ERA, 82 Ks, 0.70 WHIP)
He and Papelbon are the two best closers in the game. Putz had a better fantasy year in 2007, but these two are so good that they are essentially interchangebale on draft day. Eaither one is worth an early fourth round pick. Putz could get even better this year with the addition of Erik Bedard and the presumed health of Felix Hernandez. Both starters will give Putz additional save opportunities.
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox (2007 Stats: 1-3, 37 Saves, 1.85 ERA, 84 Ks, 0.77 WHIP)
He has the best stuff of any relief pitcher in baseball, and he's got great command. Some feel that Papelbon is an injury risk, and has had his innings kept in check for the past two years for that reason. In reality, the closer did pitch fewer times than other elite closers, but that didn't really affect his save totals. Only nine pitchers registered more saves, and the only one to top Papelbon's innings by more than 10 was Putz. When you factor in the boost he gives your fantasy team in WHIP, ERA and Ks, his overall value is obvious.
3. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (2007 Stats: 4-2, 37 Saves, 1.88 ERA, 77 Ks, 1.02 WHIP)
Arguably, Joe Nathan has been the best closer in fantasy baseball over the past four years. But this year, his team lost Johan Santana, and that could diminish Nathan's overall save chances. On the other hand, theTwins did upgrade their offense, and they also should have a healthy Joe Mauer this year; both devlopments could help Nathan.
4. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels (2007 Stats: 5-2, 40 Saves, 2.81 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.25 WHIP)
K-Rod's WHIP and walk rate are a bit worrisome, but he makes up for it with a high strikeout rate and three straight 40-save seasons.
5. Taakashi Saito, Los Angeles Dodgers (2007 Stats: 2-1, 40 Saves, 1.40 ERA, 78 Ks, 0.72 WHIP)
Sure, he will be 38 years old on Opening Day, but this guy doesn't appear to be aging. Over the last two seasons, Saito has allowed only 81 hits and 36 walks over 142.2 innings. Yes, that's a 0.82 WHIP, and only Papelbon has done better since the start of 2006.
6. Francisco Cordero, Milwaukee Brewers (2007 Stats: 0-4, 44 Saves, 2.98 ERA, 86 Ks, 1.11 WHIP). Big, strong and good. No longer throws chairs into stands, either.
7. Billy Wagner, New York Mets (2007 Stats: 2-2, 34 saves, 80 Ks, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Billy Wagner recorded the eighth 30-save season of his career, and although he had a slight increase in some of his peripheral numbers, one shouldn't be too concerned. Wagner was cruising along until August and September, when he got roughed up a bit. But his strikeout rate didn't drop, and he didn't allow more home runs than normal. He'll be repeat last year's numbers at a minimum.
8. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (2007 Stats: 3-4, 30 Saves, 3.15 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.12 WHIP)
Rivera saved only 30 games in 2007, but it really wasn't his fault because the Yankees gave him a mere 34 save chances. And although his ERA and WHIP were higher than normal, those stats were skewed by a bad April, during which he allowed nine earned runs in 7.2 innings and blew two of his three save chances.
After the All-Star break, Rivera looked like the same old Mo, saving 18 saves, with a 2.55 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. So, if you think Mo just is finally on the decline, take him 7-10th among closers. If you think the real Mo has one more year in him, take him between fourth and sixth among closers.
9. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox (2007 Stats: 3-5, 40 Saves, 56 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). Great for WHIP and saves.
10. Trevor Hoffmann San Diego Padres (4-5, 42 Saves, 2.98 ERA, 44 Ks, 1.12 WHIP)
Hoffman had 42 saves last year, and he pitches in the most spacious ballpark in the majors, but the all-time saves leader is also coming off offseason arthroscopic elbow surgery. His ERA has been on a uptrend and he doesn't get many strikeouts. At this point in his Hall of Fame career, Hoffman is solid. Good enought to have on your team, but not worthy of a pick before the 7th or 8th rounds.
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James Lincoln Ray - Real Name: James Lincoln Ray Jim has been the Feature Baseball Writer for Suite101 since March, 2007, where he has written more then ...
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